Unlock Secret Features On Your Digital Camera - Systm

A Daily Snapshot Of Market Moving Developments

Overseas Overnight Market action Outside of Japan, which rallied 1.6% on speculation that the BoJ would buy corporate debt to ease credit risk, equity markets across Asia were weaker across the board. The Hang Seng sank 3.3%, or -505 points, to 14,622. India's Sensex was off 1.7% while China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.5%. The Korean Kospi, however, fell just 0.1%. In Europe, equity markets are trading lower and off about 0.8% in the aggregate. US equity futures, however, are pointing to a higher open across the major indices. Bonds are trading mixed across the globe, with yields down 2-4 bps in Europe but up a bp in the US. JGBs were down a bp to 1.2%. On the commodity front, we see that gold is rallying, up $6.50 an ounce to $844.75.

On the data front

This is a truly global recession. We learned overnight that Japanese exports collapsed 26.7% year-over-year in November; that's the biggest drop on record. Shipments to the US plunged at an unprecedented 34% year-over-year rate. Meanwhile, imports into Japan sank 14.4% year-over-year in a sign of weakening domestic demand. A similar story out of Thailand, where exports dropped 18.6% in what was the biggest drop in at least 16 years. In China, interest rates were cut for the fifth time in three months. The key one-year lending rate was cut 27 bps to 5.31%. The reserve requirement was cut 50 bps to 15.5% for big banks and 13.5% for smaller ones. Chinese policymakers are trying to head off social unrest. Take a look at page A8 of today's WSJ, "China Faces Unrest as Economy Falters." For a read of how another BRIC nation has hit a wall in the face of a deepening global recession, turn to page A10 of today's WSJ, "India's Textile Industry Unravels."
Across the pond, signs of deflation abound. Germany's import price index dropped 3.4% MoM in November on top of a 3.6% drop in October. This was well below the consensus estimate, which was looking for a 2.5% decline. In France, producer prices plunged 1.9% in November on top of a 0.9% decline in October, well below the consensus, which was looking for a 0.9% drop for the month. Meanwhile, European industrial orders dropped 4.7% MoM in October on top of a downwardly revised 5.4% decline in September. This took the year-over-year rate to -15.1%, which is the the worst on record. We also see that German consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged at 2.1 in January from 2.2 in December.

The next bailout: commercial real estate

Now that the auto-makers have secured a $17 billion bailout, the next group heading to Washington for government assistance is property developers. Take a look at the front page of today's Wall Street Journal, "Developers Ask US For Bailout as Massive Debt Looms." Developers are warning policymakers that office complexes, malls, hotels and other commercial real estate are headed into default and bankruptcy. According to Foresight Analytics, some $350 billion of commercial mortgages will be due for refinancing over the next three years. And, with credit virtually unavailable, borrowers will have give up the property to lenders.

Whiffs of deflation in pharmacies

Take a look at page B3 of today's WSJ, "Pharmacies Fight Tough Battle on Generic Prices." In response to a discount prescription drug program from Wal-Mart, retail pharmacies like CVS, Caremark, Walgreen's and Rite Aid have started to aggressively promote their discount drug programs.

Breaking News Today's events

It is quiet today with no economic data released. Tomorrow, we'll get the final take on third quarter GDP, which is expected to remain at -0.5% QoQ annualized. The U of M index of consumer sentiment is due as well and expected to drop to 58.7 in December from 59.1 in November. New home sales are expected to drop again to 415,000 units annualized in November from 433,000 in October. Existing home sales are up too and expected to drop to 4.93 million units annualized in November from 4.98 million units in October. On Wednesday, we'll get the personal income and outlays report. Personal income expected to come in flat in November while spending is expected to drop 0.7% MoM in November on top of a 1% decline in October. The core PCE price index is expected to drop to 2% YoY in November from 2.1%. Durable goods round out the week and are expected to drop 3% MoM in November after a 6.9% collapse in October. Ex-transportation orders look to drop 2% too after a 5.4% plunge in October.

Making it up as he goes along

The latest news out of the Obama economics camp is that the upcoming fiscal plan will create 3 million jobs instead of the 2.5 million pledged just a few weeks ago. It begs the questions: How does the government "create" jobs anyway? What jobs? Where will they come from? Doesn't the government really help create and nurture the backdrop for the private sector to generate employment and economic growth? See "Obama Expands Recovery Plans As Outlook Dims" on the front page of the Sunday NYT. Indeed, 3 million jobs sounds good and makes for front page headlines, but it would be useful to see a line-item list of where these bodies are going to come from and whether they have the skills to build new ports, medical infrastructure, mass public transit infrastructure and expanded electricity grid and "green" technologies.

Let's do the math

We have 1.2 million unemployed construction workers. We have 123,000 unemployed architects and engineers. We have 83,000 unemployed machinery workers. We have 145,000 unemployed transportation-related workers. So that brings us to barely more than 1.5 million of a labor pool the government can tap into for all the new building activity. But the bulk of the joblessness is in financials (up to half a million), retail/wholesale (1.2 million), leisure/hospitality (1.3 million) and health/education (1.2 million). And if investment bankers, shopkeepers, bell captains and medical chart technicians have anything in common it is that they don't have much experience in shovel-ready activities.

Urban renewal in Obama's fiscal package

As an aside, we published a report two weeks ago highlighting the need for urban renewal as part of Obama's fiscal package - and it looks like somebody in Washington shares our view. See "Top Democrat Seeks to Boost Mass Transit's Share of Funding" on page A4 of the weekend WSJ. This is a secular theme. Another place we can see Obama's infrastructure program touch is the nation's levees, where repairs have lagged. See the front page of today's USA Today for more, "Most Levee Repairs Lagging."

Deflation risks are intact

Households have lost over $7 trillion in terms of net worth in the year ending 3Q, and it looks like this wealth destruction will top $10 trillion when the 4Q Fed flow of-funds data come out (that already exceeds the entire $4 trillion loss during the tech wreck). For a great synopsis, see "A Deflation Maelstrom In the Making" on page 11 of BusinessWeek. Friday's WSJ (page B1 - "Retailers Drop Prices to Avert a Flop") was filled with stories of how merchants are discounting more now than they were on Black Friday. Macy's has cut the prices of its diamond earrings from $800 a pair to $249 and the GAP just sliced another 60% off its already discounted clothing prices (as Bloomberg News reported over the weekend) and we are supposed to be consumed about deflation fear. Really? As a sign of how consumers are delaying their purchases in anticipation of even lower prices, only 47% of shoppers have completed their holiday activity versus 53% a year ago. We regard this as evidence that deflation expectations are creeping in.
And one of the conditions for deflation is, of course, wage flexibility, and everywhere we look, we see an increasing number of companies cutting back on their wage bills. FedEx is just one example - slashing wages for 35,000 employees by 5% (that is 16% of the company's workforce), including a 20% base pay cut for its Chairman and CEO (plus no company contributions to 401k plans in 2009). We also see that Nortel, Eastman Chemical, Newell Rubbermaid, Agilent Technologies, Atlas World Group, and AK Steel Holding have all cut wages and salaries in the past few weeks. According to Watson Wyatt Worldwide, another 6% of companies also plan to cut wages and benefits and 23% intend to reduce the size of their staff in 2009. Also have a look at the front page of "In Need of Cash, More Companies Cut 401(k) Match" - again, the labor market is definitely deflating. Not only that, but these cuts to 401(k) contributions are going to accelerate the process towards rising personal savings rates in coming quarters and years - again, a highly deflationary development and we are not sure that there is an appropriate response to this given that the savings rate is already at rock bottom levels of around 2%.
Moreover, the national labor market has frozen to such an extent that labor mobility has contracted significantly - see "Data Show Drop in Americans On the Move" on page 27 of the FT. Also have a look at front page of today's New York Times, "More Companies Cut Labor Costs, Without Layoffs." Companies are implementing four-day workweeks, unpaid vacations, wage freezes and pension cuts but keeping their headcount. Finally, take a look at page 13 of today's Financial Times, "Christmas Shutdown in Silicon Valley." What is usually limited to traditional manufacturing industries like auto has now hit tech. Companies across Silicon Valley are shutting down until after the holidays to cut back on spending. In spite of the forced time-off, some workers will be required to use up part of their holiday entitlement or if they don't have vacation days, take unpaid leave.

Historians may title this era GDII

As we said, historians may look back on this era and title it GDII: After all, look at how people are behaving - one of the newest fashions is renting movies about the Great Depression, or that have a similar theme like the "Grapes of Wrath" and "It's a Wonderful Life". See "Reality Can be Escaping, Too" on the front page of the Sunday NYT's Week in Review section.

Consensus still loves equities and despises bonds

See Barron's for more on the 'groupthink' theme - every single strategist surveyed (outside of us) sees the 10-year note yield backing up next year from current levels (page M12). The consensus is 3% for the end of 2009. As for equities, the Roundtable (see page 23) is at 1,045 for the S&P 500 (which would be +15 from here). Nobody is lower than 975 (Rich B's prediction) so +10% is at the low end of the entire spectrum. Health care was cited as a 'favorite sector' by 10 of the 12 pundits, and at least one of utilities/staples/telecom showed up on the top list of two-thirds of the respondents. So the view seems to be that we are going to have a bounce next year, led by ... the defensives. Interesting.

We don't understand why so many are bearish on rates

What we truly don't understand is why it is that so many folks are bearish on interest rates when in fact we need a sustained period of very low yields to help blaze the trail for the next sustainable economic expansion: After all, isn't it good news that, because of Mr. Bond's strength and resolve, we now have the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at the lowest level in at least 37 years (5.27%)? Mortgage rates are now down 7 weeks in a row (it does the beg the question, however, as to why it is that mortgage applications for new purchases slid at a 20% annual rate in November and are off in 9 of the past 10 months). And despite the best affordability ratios in 35 years, what did we hear from Lennar last week - that its order book collapsed 46% in the past year and backlogs are down 67%. Maybe the classic affordability ratios that use conventional mortgages don't tell the complete story - because nonconventional mortgage rates have lagged with jumbo loans still costing 6.9%.

Homebuilders pressuring Washington for a bailout

As the bailouts pile up, we thought that the best read of the weekend was from the Weekend WSJ - see page W1 ("Is the Medicine Worse than the Illness?"). And now we see that the homebuilders are pressuring Washington to provide first-time homebuyers with a $22,000 tax credit. It's as if there is now a pervasive belief that there is a bottomless pit of cash ready to be put to use to correct all the excesses of the past decade from financials, to autos to builders. It's amazing that we could have let so many tech companies go belly up in the last cycle but have gone this route of accelerating rescue packages this time around. At least in the last cycle, we were running balanced budgets as opposed to trillion-dollar deficits. What does concern us is the risk to civil liberties when bankruptcy judges can alter contracts, the government can force banks to accept public capital injections (Jamie Dimon said on CNBC he didn't want or need Paulson's help), the government by fiat can bring mortgage rates down as opposed to market forces, the government tells lenders how to price their credit card business (since when did a piece of plastic become a right instead of a luxury?).

The major risks for 2009

We continue to believe that trade protectionism, competitive devaluations and military conflicts are the major risks for investors for 2009 - this is, after all, the most broadly based global recession (according to the IMF, not just us) in the post-WWII era: Ecuador defaulted on its foreign debt. Since the G20 meeting in Washington in October, five of those countries - Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Argentina - have announced their intentions to raise import tariffs or otherwise restrict trade. Russia has announced plans to raise tariffs on autos; India has already lifted duties on iron, steel and soy; Brazil and Argentina are putting together a case within Mercosur for boosting external tariffs. Vietnam just raised taxes on steel imports to 12% from 8%. The EU said it may reimpose duties of 79% on a paper-binder component in retaliation against China. French President Sarkozy has established a $7.5 bln fund to invest in domestic companies so as to avoid foreign takeovers. China has reinstated export rebates and now we see that US steel, textile and paper markets intend to file complaints against Chinese imports, and did anyone notice that this auto-bailout excludes foreign companies?
It's all about self-preservation. We think that for anyone who missed it, the article on the front page of Friday's NYT is a worthwhile read ("After 30 Years, Economic Perils on China's Path"). Russia also cannot be regarded as a stable data point either as it just posted its first monthly budget deficit in November and the sovereign debt was just downgraded by S&P for the first time in a decade (Friday's WSJ reports says "public panic is one of the Kremlin's greatest fears"; the NYT reports that "as Beijing worries about strikes and mass layoffs even in some of the its most prosperous areas, official tolerance of political dissent has seemingly narrowed".) Gold will be an important hedge against policy missteps
Gold, in our opinion, is going to be important hedge against such policy missteps in 2009; and not only gold, but security of supply and government procurement policies may end up putting a floor under the beleaguered commodity complex earlier than a lot of folks think. As the chart below attests, there is a pretty good link between government spending as a share of GDP and the CRB index, because governments don't buy clothing or jewelry but they do buy "material".
And as for gold, the chart looks good against a vast majority of currencies and has broken out against Sterling. See chart below.

As we said before, the new growth engine for the economy is government spending, which is already on the rise and set to take out the prior high of over 23%. After all, when you are in trouble, you go to family members for help first. Uncle Sam.....?

Market Outlook - 22/12/2008

Market Outlook

• Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets by Peter Cooper
• The Antidote to Economic Malaise: A Culture of Collective Mindfulness by Geoffrey Morton-Haworth
• Get on Base with SPY Covered Calls by Glenn McSpadden
• Preview from Europe: Auto Bailout Fails to Cheer by The Mole
• California Housing Recovery? Not So Fast by SA Editor Judy Weil
• December Is Currencies' 'Silly Season' by Joseph Trevisani
• Spain's Bank Chief Joins Economic Pessimism Club by Michael Panzner
• Impatient with Upcoming Recovery? by Steven Hansen
• Stock Market Cycles, Part 10: Secondary Market Cycles by John Lounsbury
• Global Investing Economic Outlook for 2009 by Global Investing Editor
• Wall Street Boys Cautiously Bullish - Barron's by SA Editor Eli Hoffmann
• Which Way Will the Market Break? by Kingsley Anderson
• Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's by SA Editor Eli Hoffmann
• Does Market Resilience Indicate Most Sellers Have Left the Market? by Joseph Calhoun
• Sentiment Overview: Still Hoping for That Resounding Pessimism by Babak
• ECRI: Economic Forecast Remains Terrible by Steven Hansen
• Desire for Safety Is Making Investors Short Sighted by Tyler McKinna
• Bernanke Can Only Offer Temporary Reassurance by James Cullen
• Those Illusory Stimulus Packages by Rakesh Saxena
• Dollar's Stunning Drop, Ten-Year Treasuries' Huge Rally - What's Going on? by Alex Trias
• Despite Everything, Capitalism Is Alive and Well by Gennady Favel
• Global Markets in Review: Cheer or Jeer? by Prieur du Plessis

The Weekly Report for December 21st - December 26th, 2008

December 21, 2008- Market Summary

In our previous report, we mentioned that the major indexes, such as the S&P 500, have started to rebound off their recent lows. We noted that each of the indexes have retraced toward the resistance of their respective 50-day moving averages. As you can see from the charts below, the nearby resistance gives us reason to believe that it isn't time to bet on a reversal quite yet. The bulls continued to struggle, sending the indexes above the medium-term moving average, which is why a period of sideways price movement, like what we've seen over the past couple of weeks, is common in a strong trend. The weakening fundamental and economic data from across the globe makes it extremely difficult for anyone to predict how long buying pressure will last, but this could be a period ofconsolidation before the bears send the markets lower again. 

Join me (CaseyMurphy) in Investopedia's FREE Stock Picking Community. Check out what other traders are watching and post your own takes on where you think your favorite stocks are headed.Click here to learn more!

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The Best Free File Download Managers

http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/the-best-free-file-download-managers/

from MakeUseOf.com by Simon Slangen

One type of application I really wouldn’t be able to miss is my download manager.
Download managers are Godsend. They allow us to accelerate, manage and time all of our downloads.
One of the major features of a download manager or accelerator is the file splitting process. This splits the file into different chunks - sections - which it then downloads simultaneously. This can allow some downloads to go up to five or ten times faster.
Over the years, numerous download managers popped up, but I was especially surprised to see how many free download managers were available.

FlashGet

FlashGet is one of the most popular download managers available. Both themselves and their huge userbase have named them “The Best Download Manager”.
This download manager runs pretty low on system resources, hence the influence on your usual computing behaviour is limited to a bare minimum. All these downloaded files can be easily organised through various categories, so wave goodbye to your ever so messy desktop.
Anti-virus integration is also supported - this allows you to specify an anti-virus application and plan instant virus-scans on all your downloaded files.
However, FlashGet’s biggest power lies in protocol support. HTTP, FTP, BitTorrent, MMS and RTSP are just a handful of the supported protocols.

FlashGet is available for Windows, download it here. Version 2.00 available here.

Free Download Manager

Free Download Manager (FDM) is a 100% free, open-source program released under the GNU General Public License. This means that the source code can be accessed by everyone and improved versions can be made by the community.
Besides supporting the HTTP, HTTPS, FTP and BitTorrent protocols, the Free Download manager can also grab flash video content from various websites such as YouTube, Daily Media and Google Video.
The feature that makes the Free Download Manager stand out is getting a ‘community opinion’ on files. This means that you’ll see what other members of the community have to say about the file you’re about to download. Through this function, Free Download Manager tries to warn you for any malicious downloads.
Several other functions include a built-in upload manager to easily share your files with your friends, colleagues and family, a remote control option and portable installation support.

Free Download Manager is available for 32bit Windows, download it here.

Download Accelerator Plus

With 165 million users worldwide, Download Accelerator Plus is the market leader in download acceleration and management.
Several new features became available with the release of version 9.00. Download Accelerator Plus now features a YouTube downloader, similar to Free Download Manager. The Preview Function allows you to check the validity or quality of any unfinished video and audio files, and a free video converter allows you to put your downloaded videos in PSP and iPod format.
Download Accelerator Plus works with a Multi Antivirus security analysis to protect you from most malicious downloads.
The only problem with Download Accelerator Plus are their constant tries to promote the premium version.

Download Accelerator Plus is available for Windows, download it here.

Alternative applications

Of course the download manager arsenal isn’t limited to the above three applications. Below are other free download managers that didn’t manage to get featured but might be worth a look.

• Net Transport
• Fresh Download
• WackGet - a very minimalistic download manager

Which application do you use, and why? Do you know of any other options? Drop them in a comment below.
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12/20/08 - US President-elect Obama's Weekly Address

Over the past few weeks, Vice President-Elect Biden and I have announced some of the leaders who will advise us as we seek to meet America’s twenty-first century challenges, from strengthening our security, to rebuilding our economy, to preserving our planet for our children and grandchildren. Today, I am pleased to announce members of my science and technology team whose work will be critical to these efforts.

Whether it’s the science to slow global warming; the technology to protect our troops and confront bioterror and weapons of mass destruction; the research to find life-saving cures; or the innovations to remake our industries and create twenty-first century jobs—today, more than ever before, science holds the key to our survival as a planet and our security and prosperity as a nation. It is time we once again put science at the top of our agenda and worked to restore America’s place as the world leader in science and technology.

Right now, in labs, classrooms and companies across America, our leading minds are hard at work chasing the next big idea, on the cusp of breakthroughs that could revolutionize our lives. But history tells us that they cannot do it alone. From landing on the moon, to sequencing the human genome, to inventing the Internet, America has been the first to cross that new frontier because we had leaders who paved the way: leaders like President Kennedy, who inspired us to push the boundaries of the known world and achieve the impossible; leaders who not only invested in our scientists, but who respected the integrity of the scientific process.

Because the truth is that promoting science isn’t just about providing resources—it’s about protecting free and open inquiry. It’s about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It’s about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it’s inconvenient—especially when it’s inconvenient. Because the highest purpose of science is the search for knowledge, truth and a greater understanding of the world around us. That will be my goal as President of the United States—and I could not have a better team to guide me in this work.

Dr. John Holdren has agreed to serve as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. John is a professor and Director of the Program on Science, Technology, and Public Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, as well as President and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center. A physicist renowned for his work on climate and energy, he’s received numerous honors and awards for his contributions and has been one of the most passionate and persistent voices of our time about the growing threat of climate change. I look forward to his wise counsel in the years ahead.

John will also serve as a Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology—or PCAST—as will Dr. Harold Varmus and Dr. Eric Lander. Together, they will work to remake PCAST into a vigorous external advisory council that will shape my thinking on the scientific aspects of my policy priorities.

Dr. Varmus is no stranger to this work. He is not just a path-breaking scientist, having won a Nobel Prize for his research on the causes of cancer—he also served as Director of the National Institutes of Health during the Clinton Administration. I am grateful he has answered the call to serve once again.

Dr. Eric Lander is the Founding Director of the Broad Institute at MIT and Harvard and was one of the driving forces behind mapping the human genome—one of the greatest scientific achievements in history. I know he will be a powerful voice in my Administration as we seek to find the causes and cures of our most devastating diseases.

Finally, Dr. Jane Lubchenco has accepted my nomination as the Administrator of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is devoted to conserving our marine and coastal resources and monitoring our weather. An internationally known environmental scientist and ecologist and former President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Jane has advised the President and Congress on scientific matters, and I am confident she will provide passionate and dedicated leadership at NOAA.

Working with these leaders, we will seek to draw on the power of science to both meet our challenges across the globe and revitalize our economy here at home. And I’ll be speaking more after the New Year about how my Administration will engage leaders in the technology community and harness technology and innovation to create jobs, enhance America’s competitiveness and advance our national priorities.

I am confident that if we recommit ourselves to discovery; if we support science education to create the next generation of scientists and engineers right here in America; if we have the vision to believe and invest in things unseen, then we can lead the world into a new future of peace and prosperity.

Thank you.