quarta-feira, 24 de dezembro de 2008

Crude Oil: A Gusher Of An Opportunity

By Nico Isaac
Over the last two weeks, oil prices have seen more ups and downs than a Cirque De Soleil trapeze swinger. On Friday December 5, prices swan dove to a four-year low after clocking in their second largest weekly loss in energy trading history. And, according to the mainstream experts, oil's woes -- which are intrinsically linked to the global economic slump -- had only just begun.
"It doesn't matter what the price is at this point," began a December 6 Wall Street Journal. "It's just 'get me out of any position I have." – AND – "After the jobless number, any bulls left in the oil market will become extinct." -- Bloomberg
Turns out, oil bulls did NOT go the way of the Dodo. Quite the opposite: On Monday, December 9, crude prices turned up in a powerful three-day winning streak to their highest level in two weeks.
After tacking on a dramatic 10% gain, oil prices then slipped from their December 11 peak and tumbled to a fresh, four-year low.
Which begs the question -- Random behavior OR planned routine? According to the mainstream experts, the answer is "A." In their words: "There seems to be no rhyme or reason to prices." – AP.
(Staying On Crude Oil's Down-Up-Down SideEnergy Specialty Servicereveals where the next big move in crude oil could be. Act now for the complete story.)
EWI's Energy Specialty Service editor Steve Craig disagrees. No matter how volatile the twists and turns in oil prices -- Steve has been able to spot the underlying Elliott Wave pattern at large.
Case in point: ONE day before oil hit its all-time peak on July 11, 2008, the July 10 Specialty Service acknowledged the downside potential in the market’s near-term future and wrote:
“Two key topping indicators are still evident – extreme bullish sentiment and relentless media attention. Possible third and fourth signs – volatility and cries for more government regulation of commodity trading – are nearing their heads… It all points to a very mature uptrend.”
As for crude's most recent swings, Steve has remained one step ahead. To wit:
The December 5 low: December 4 Daily Energy Specialty Service forecast presented this bullish case: "I am looking for a credible ending pattern… Once the bottom is in, a substantial advance should unfold" in wave four.
The December 11 high: December 11-12 Intraday Energy Specialty Servicewrote: "The recent rebound looks corrective and complete, so we'll continue with the outlook for a fifth wave down. Resistance is at 50.39, which would be an 'ideal' price for this rebound to end."
The best part I saved for last: The latest Energy Specialty Service forecast presents the following chart of Crude prices since the year 1859 -- when the first commercial oil well was drilled in the United States. (Some Elliott wave labels have been erased for this publication)
This historical close-up provides the most comprehensive and objective evaluation of crude’s long-term trend out there.
The picture can be seen in its entirety, along with in-depth analysis on every time frame in the latest forecasts of the Energy Specialty Service. In Steve Craig's own word: “I’m anticipating a volatile, gut wrenching, fear-laden”move in Crude Oil.

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