quarta-feira, 7 de janeiro de 2009

What's So Special About Elliott Wave Analysis?


By Vadim Pokhlebkin
You may already know that it's easy to follow professional Elliott wave counts in market charts – such as the ones you see in Elliott Wave International's publications, for example. But if you've ever tried to count waves on your own – especially under pressure, while trading – that can be a real challenge.
Yet those who know Elliott say that it's well worth it. What's so special about it? Well, it just happens to be a question we hear a lot. For answers, let's turn to someone with experience in wave analysis and trading: Jeffrey Kennedy, one of Elliott Wave International's senior analysts and instructors. Here is his take.
Elliott Wave Analysis, Benefit #1: It identifies the trend.
You always want to trade in the direction of the trend, with the wind at your back. For example, if you are long a stock, your probability of success is much greater if all major indexes are also rallying. Well, Elliott wave analysis is based on two types of wave development: impulsive and corrective. Impulse waves are five-wave moves, and they identify the direction of the larger trend. A five-wave impulse tells you the trend as up, while a five-wave decline tells you it's down, as this idealized diagram shows.

Benefit #2: Elliott wave analysis identifies countertrend moves within the trend.
Corrective waves are simply a response to the preceding impulse wave; corrections always move against the trend. They typically subdivide into three waves (A-B-C) and give us, the traders, an opportunity to position our trades 
in the direction of the market's larger trend.

Benefit #3: Elliott wave analysis identifies upcoming changes in trend.
Elliott waves are fractal: Larger five and three-wave structures consist of smaller ones. This lets you gauge the maturity of the trend. For example, if prices are advancing in wave 5 of a larger five-wave advance, and the current wave 5 has already completed most of its smaller waves, you know that this is not the time to be adding to long positions. Instead, some profit taking is in order, or your protective stops need to be raised.

Benefit #4: Elliott wave analysis confirms the resumption of the trend.
Corrections typically unfold in three waves: A-B-C. When an A-B-C is over and price exceeds the extreme of wave B, it implies that the larger trend has resumed.

Benefit #5: Elliott wave analysis provides high-probability price targets.
When R.N. Elliott, the discoverer of the Wave Principle, wrote 
Nature’s Law, he specifically stated that the Fibonacci sequence was its mathematical basis. Elliott waves, both impulses and corrections, adhere to specific Fibonacci proportions – and those translate into price targets.

Benefit #6:Elliott wave analysis provides specific "points of ruin."
Where are you wrong? That's the eternal question for traders. The Three Rules of Elliott help us here:

Rule 1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
Rule 2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.
Rule 3: Out of the three impulse waves 1, 3 and 5, wave 3 can never be the shortest.

Of course, as wonderful as all this sounds, it's just theory. How do you turn it into trading strategies? Practice, practice, practice. The only shortcut I know of is to find a teacher. Then you can r
eplace their months (or years) of being beaten by the market with a few days of learning.
At EWI, we have practiced Elliott wave analysis for 30 years now. Now is your chance to turn theory into practice in a live 2-day setting at our new Intensive Elliott Wave Trading Courses, "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market" -- now held in Atlanta, GA, New York City, NY, and London, England. We still have a few seats left.

How Bush Became "The Worst President Ever"


By Nico Isaac
In the wake of Barack Obama's historic presidential election, it's difficult not to acknowledge his predecessor George W. Bush's precipitous fall from that very position of leader of the Free World.
Fact is, public opinion of Bush has undergone one of the most radical about faces in memory: From his first-term's highest approval rating in the Gallup Poll's entire 70-year history, TO second-term whipping boy with a record-low approval rating of 27%.
In the words of one December 31 news headline: "Scholars unflinching in negative assessment of Bush's legacy." (Detroit Free Press) And, according to the experts, "W" will undoubtedly go down in the book as one of the "Worst Presidents Ever."
Contrary to popular belief(s), the REAL reason behind Bush's fall from grace is not "policy" (say the leftists), "scapegoating" (say the rightists), or a "breakdown of bipartisanship" (say the middle-ists).
It is: A downturn in mass social mood, as reflected by the bear market decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
In his 2002 best-selling book Conquer the Crash, Bob Prechter addressed the one pre-condition for Presidential popularity and wrote: "U.S. electoral history shows that when the stock market is rising, reflecting a positive social mood trend, voters tend to maintain the incumbent leader. When stock markets collapse, the leader is thrown out in a landslide or by other means. There are no exceptions to this rule."
(Presidential Popularity AND Stock Prices: Mass social mood alone determines whether a leader leaves the White House a hero, or a disgrace. The latest Financial Forecast Servicereveals whether Bush's bear will be Obama's legacy. Act Now)
The moderate gain in the market averages in the three years leading up to Election Day in 2004 indicated a small margin in Bush's favor, and that's the way the election turned out. On that very day, the November 4, 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist warned: Bush's victory would be short-lived. An excerpt from the EWT painted this startling picture:
"This is bad news for Republicans, who will rue the day they won the election in 2004. The large degree of the bear market that is underway is likely to wreak havoc with Bush's second term… He will probably experience something very like Nixon's second term but worse: A bigger slide in the stock market, a drop to lower levels of popularity, and ultimately ousting by some method. If he makes it through all four years, the next Republican candidate will probably lose the 2008 election by a huge margin. The downhill course of this presidency will pave the way for the Democratic candidate to become president in 2008."
Note: EWT's prediction came BEFORE the Bush Administration was marred by the bursting of the real estate bubble, the subprime mortgage implosion, the Hurricane Katrina levy debacle, the Abu Ghraib scandal and Guantanamo Bay detainment camp controversy, the credit crisis, and the across-the-board meltdown of all asset classes in the U.S. economy.
The wheels of a downturn in social mood had already started to turn. Our team of expert analysts foresaw that its reversal would take down every pillar of the former bull market glory, including the President (and his party) – AND determine the outcome of the 2008 election long before the November 4 votes were tallied.
Socionomically speaking, Barack Obama's campaign slogan of "Change" was pure genius. Change is exactly what social mood had undergone AND exactly what it would demand of its new leader.

Introdução da série Twin Peaks

Talking Heads - Once in a Lifetime

Nirvana - Come As You Are.

Bruce Springsteen Dancing in the dark

terça-feira, 6 de janeiro de 2009

Rachael Leigh Cook

Systm - Cheap and Easy Hard Drive Upgrade

David Sirota: The Forgotten Math: Pre-WWII New Deal Saw Biggest Drop In Unemployment Rate in History


from The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by David Sirota

On Christmas Eve, I appeared on Fox News to discuss the upcoming economic recovery package, only to be told that FDR's New Deal "prolonged the Great Depression" (you can watch the clip here). This is the latest consevative talking point - one specifically aimed at stopping President Obama and the new Congress from passing a New Deal-sized package of public spending.
And so after appearing on Fox, I decided to devote my first newspaper column in the New Year to looking into whether conservatives have any shred of evidence to support their claim that the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression. And what do you know, they don't...at all. In fact, as government data shows, the pre-WWII New Deal era from 1933-1940 - even including the much-hyped recession of 1937-38 - saw the single biggest drop in the unemployment rate in American history (skip down to see the graphs and data that conservatives want us to forget).
In my column, I cite data about this, noting that the economy grew at stellar rates and that unemployment dropped. I also concede that the New Deal wasn't perfect. But the basic macroeconomic data about jobs and growth - the data points we use to judge every presidential economic agenda - confirms this positive record.
Since my column came out, I've received an overflow of angry email from conservatives citing Amity Shlaes since-discredited book "The Forgotten Man" as "proof" that the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression. But note - the operative phrase is "since-discredited." As University of California historian Eric Rauchway has noted, Shlaes both wholly omits some relevant data and deviously manipulates other numbers:
Shlaes makes a different argument about numbers, because she uses different numbers. She starts each chapter with a rat-a-tat of just-the-facts, but instead of GDP, which represents the overall economy, she quotes the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which represents the maybe 10 percent of Americans who owned stock...Let's look at a figure Shlaes gives twice in her book and again in her Wall Street Journal editorial: She has unemployment at 20 percent in the 1937-38 recession. That's appalling--almost as bad as 23 percent in 1932. Based on such a statistic, you could think the New Deal wasn't alleviating the Great Depression. But that number hides something: A third of the people Shlaes counts as unemployed had a job that the New Deal gave them through its relief programs.
By this measure, government jobs don't count as jobs, and therefore their estimates of unemployment are far higher. To understand how manipulative this is, imagine the howls of protest conservatives would be airing if, in criticizing George W. Bush, Democrats took today's unemployment data and then inflated it by counting the millions of people who work for federal, state and local governments as unemployed.
Shlaes is backed up by other conservatives, who are slightly more honest than her in acknowledging unemployment may have decreased during the New Deal. But these right-wingers then inevitably claim that unemployment only decreased a little bit in the New Deal, and only significantly dropped when World War II and the subsequent defense buildup started.
So to end this historical revisionism once and for all - to compare apples to apples, rather than apples to conservatives' fuzzy math - let's go to the great equalizer, the Census Data, and specifically Census document HS-29 (available in PDF or Excel formats). Quoting directly from Census data, here are the unemployment rates and total number of official unemployed at the beginning and end of the presidential terms since the Great Depression:
ROOSEVELT PRE-WWII NEW DEAL 1932 Unemployment Rate: 23.6% (12.8 million total unemployed) 1940 Unemployment Rate: 14.6% (8.1 million total unemployed) Unemployment Rate Change: -9.0 Total unemployment percentage change: -36.7%ROOSEVELT WWII
1941 Unemployment Rate: 9.9% (5.5 million total unemployed)
1944 Unemployment Rate: 1.2% (670,000 total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: -8.7
Total unemployment percentage change: -87.9%

1945 Unemployment Rate: 1.9% (1.0 million total unemployed)
1952 Unemployment Rate: 3.0% (1.8 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: +1.1
Total unemployment percentage change: +81.0%

1953 Unemployment Rate: 2.9% (1.8 million total unemployed)
1960 Unemployment Rate: 5.5% (3.8 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: +2.6%
Total unemployment percentage change: +110.03%
1961 Unemployment Rate: 6.7% (4.7 million total unemployed)
1963 Unemployment Rate: 5.7% (4.0 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: -1.0%
Total unemployment percentage change: -13.6%
1964 Unemployment Rate: 5.2% (3.7 million total unemployed)
1968 Unemployment Rate: 3.6% (2.8 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: -1.6%
Total unemployment percentage change: -25.6%

1969 Unemployment Rate: 3.5% (2.8 million total unemployed)
1974 Unemployment Rate: 5.6% (5.1 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: +2.1%
Total unemployment percentage change: +82.0%
1975 Unemployment Rate: 8.5% (7.9 million total unemployed)
1976 Unemployment Rate: 7.7% (7.4 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: -0.8%
Total unemployment percentage change: -6.6%
1977 Unemployment Rate: 7.1% (6.9 million total unemployed)
1980 Unemployment Rate: 7.1% (7.6 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: 0.0
Total unemployment percentage change: +9.24%
1981 Unemployment Rate: 7.6% (8.2 million total unemployed)
1988 Unemployment Rate: 5.5% (6.7 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: -2.1%
Total unemployment percentage change: -19.0%
1989 Unemployment Rate: 5.3% (6.5 million total unemployed)
1992 Unemployment Rate: 7.5% (9.6 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change: +2.2
Total unemployment percentage change: +47.2%

1993 Unemployment Rate: 6.9% (8.9 million total unemployed)
2000 Unemployment Rate: 4.0% (5.6 million total unemployed)
Unemployment Rate Change -2.9
Total unemployment percentage change: -36.3%
As you can see, in terms of the unemployment rate - that is, the percentage of the total workforce not working - the pre-WWII New Deal era saw the single largest drop in American history. Yes, I'll say that again for conservatives, just to make sure they get it: The PRE-WWII New Deal era from 1933-1940 - not the WWII era - saw the largest drop in the unemployment rate in American history. And by the way, that even includes the recession of 1937-1938. You can see it right here in graphical format:

Now, it is certainly true that the percentage drop of total unemployed was bigger in WWII than it was in the pre-WWII New Deal era. But as the data show, even by that metric, the pre-WWII New Deal era saw the second largest percentage drop in total unemployed in the 20th century, going from 12.8 million unemployed in Roosevelt's first year in office to 8.1 million unemployed at the end of his second term in 1940. That's a 36.7 percent drop - larger than the Clinton era (36.3%) and, yes conservatives, larger than the Reagan era (a mere 19%). At the absolute minimum, that would suggests the New Deal was a positive - not negative - economic force (and empirically more positive than, say, Reagan's free-market agenda). Again, here it is in graphical format:

These are the hard and fast numbers conservatives would like us all to forget with their claim that history proves massive spending packages like the New Deal will supposedly harm our economy. Indeed, as the numbers show, we'll be very fortunate if Congress and President Obama delivers as robust an agenda as the New Deal delivered kind of job success that Roosevelt delivered in the pre-WWII New Deal era.
More on Barack Obama

Conheça golpes na internet e saiba como evitá-los


from iG Economia

BRASÍLIA - Além da tentativa de instalação de vírus nos computadores, em alguns casos por meio de  spams (propoganda) ou quando um internauta baixa arquivos de música infectados, os hackers também agem na internet buscando computadores com falhas de segurança - com "portas" abertas.Acordo OrtográficoUma vez "dentro dos computadores", e com seu comando remoto, eles (hackers) criam as chamadas Botnets. Os criminosos usam, por exemplo, para enviar spams para uma imensa lista de e-mails. As Botnets são gigantescas, podendo registrar mais de 100 mil computadores sob o controle de um único hacker.
A partir do uso dessas redes, eles não somente passam spams, mas podem também obter dados pessoais e senhas bancárias. Uma vez em posse de tais informações, os criminosos contam com todos os elementos para a prática de fraudes através da internet.
O delegado responsável pelo combate aos crimes eletrônicos da Polícia Federal, Carlos Eduardo Sobral, explicou que as quadrilhas normalmente possuem algum conhecimento de informática antes da aplicação de golpes. A partir daí elas buscam hackers e oferecem dinheiro ou parte dos lucros com o golpe para a formatação de um vírus.
Com o vírus em mãos eles usam as Botnets – ou as portas abertas nos milhares de computadores da rede – para disseminá-lo. Assim, centenas de senhas e contas bancárias são obtidas (o que não é crime no Brasil) e torna-se relativamente fácil a entrada em contas correntes e o desvio de recursos. Vale lembrar que somente a partir da transação bancária existe crime no Brasil.
Ação da polícia
Devido à falta de legislação e ao modo de operação das quadrilhas, Carlos Eduardo Sobral explicou que é muito difícil prender os criminosos. "Quando sacam o dinheiro tentamos buscar fotos na agência, algumas pistas, pois é complicado fazer o caminho de volta num crime como esses", disse o delegado.
Ele explicou que ao fazer o caminho reverso, sempre se cai nas Botnets. Ou seja, o computador de algum "laranja" foi usado para acessar o banco. Atrás desse "laranja" existem outros milhares de computadores "laranjas" na Botnet, que são usados sem o conhecimento de seus donos.
"Por isso precisamos de uma legislação para quem faz vírus e para quem tem Botnets, assim podemos nos antecipar ao crime. Fazer o rastreamento voltando computador por computador para chegar em quem cometeu o crime é complicado devido às Botnets", comentou.
Dicas de proteção
Para se proteger dos crimes, a própria Federação Brasileira dos Bancos (Febraban) dá uma série de dicas para que os internautas se protejam ao usar a internet:
*Desconfie sempre das histórias que receber pela Internet, principalmente quando oferecem vantagens ou ganhos fora do comum;
*Não clique em links desconhecidos por mais atraente que seja a história contada;
*Conheça bem o site do seu banco e preste muita atenção a qualquer anormalidade;
*Entre em contato com o banco sempre que suspeitar de alguma irregularidade;
*Mantenha seu micro com softwares originais, que permitem atualizações constantes, com um antivírus atualizado e com um software de proteção contra ataques pela Internet (firewall).
Além disso, não é aconselhável armazenar documentos de texto com informações de login e senhas em seu computador.
Leia mais sobre:  crimes na internet

Four at Four: Rally for Now, Worry Later


from WSJ.com: MarketBeat by David Gaffen


  • Another day, another rally, and perhaps a few more believers. It’s premature to term this recent surge as much more than an early-year allocation flurry, bolstered by the hope that perhaps the economic outlook will improve a bit more quickly than expected, but it isn’t a bad thing. “The better tone in the chips and selling in pharmaceutical and defensive names maybesuggests people are getting away from the worries,” says Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global. The semiconductor companies were among the better performers Tuesday, as the Semiconductors Holdrs ETF gained 4.8%. Profit warnings loom, however, and Alcoa’s announcement of a 15% cut in its workforce — while admitting that previous cost-cutting moves were inadequate — suggest a bumpy environment for some time to come. The company will be cutting capital expenditures by 50%. Should other corporations announce similar moves, with similar reasoning, it would pose a detriment to the economy because of the importance of business spending to the economic outlook. As earnings season approaches, there will be others. “My guess is, you’ll probably see the market correct or see some selling in front of these events,” says Mr. Kalivas. “The depth of that correction, and the ability to respond positively to what should be bad news, will give us direction going into February.”

  • Phil Schiller. There

  • Save for a surprise appearance by Steve Jobs, little new was anticipated at the Macworld trade show. The keynote by Phil Schiller, senior vice president of Apple marketing, was well-received, at least. The company announced pricing changes to music sold on iTunes, a new 17-inch MacBook Pro, and a few other items, but buzz about a smaller or cheaper iPhone did not come to pass, and served, in part, as motivation for investors to snap up shares of Research in Motion, which gained 7.5% while Apple slipped 1.7%. “The last few hours, the paths of the two names are distinctly divergent,” noted Jeff Cooper, writing on Minyanville.com. Overall, however, analysts at Piper Jaffray contend that the underwhelming agenda this time around suggests that Mr. Jobs mostly bailed out because he had nothing new or interesting. “If Phil Schiller had made a significant announcement, we would have seen that as a sign of a changing-of-the-guard, but that was not the case,” they write, working their way around to the conclusion that Mr. Jobs is still in fine health. Other analysts expressed similar views of the conference, judging it to be about as expected, with Barclays analysts saying that “we believe Apple continues to be the leading innovator in its space with vertically integrated software & services building a loyal community across a range of devices.”

  • Inflation

  • The first Treasury note sale of 2009, an $8 billion auction of Treasury Inflation Protected securities, came out better than anticipated, and there’s a hopeful message embedded in those results. “It’s good to see the TIPS auction go over well especially in the context of this deflation scare that we are in,” writes George Goncalves, Treasury and agency strategist at Morgan Stanley. The heavy bidding resulted in a high rate of 2.245% for the auction, about 0.1 percentage point lower than the expected rate in the market, which was about 2.345%. What that means is that regardless of the market’s action, investors were still interested in protecting themselves against a possible inflationary scare, and it’s also an acknowledgment that the current difference between Treasury notes and TIPs are a bit unrealistic. (That difference was 0.08 percentage point, which might be the current inflation situation, but is not likely to persist.) For a short-term investor, the demand suggests that “they’re expecting that inflation fears come back over the course of the next eight, 10 or 12 months,” says Ian Lyngen, market strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “It’s difficult to imagine that over the course of the next 10 years we’re not going to have an inflationary scare.”

  • Rohm

  • Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris was adamant Tuesday that its planned acquisition of specialty-chemical companyRohm & Haas will happen, despite the breakdown of a $17.4 billion joint venture with a Kuwait-based chemical company. Investors are to be forgiven if they’re hedging their bets on this. Shares of Rohm & Haas fell 3.7% to close at $61.45 after Dow said it is looking to legal action and considering the sale of assets in order to finance its $15.3 billion buy of Rohm & Haas — which may not close any time soon as a result. Options traders were all over Rohm & Haas Tuesday. In addition to a decline in shares, selling in January call options at various strike prices erupted, and the premiums fell, as investors place a reduced possibility on the closing of the deal at the original $78-per-share price. More than 25,000 call options at the $75 strike price changed hands, with the price per option falling to 90 cents from $1.15, and similar selling was witnessed in the $65 and $70 strike prices. Still, analysts at Credit Suisse remain optimistic that the deal will close, “resulting in a trading opportunity for ROH.”

  • Market Outlook - 06/01/2009

    Market Outlook

    segunda-feira, 5 de janeiro de 2009

    Puxada por Vale e siderúrgicas, Bovespa supera 41 mil pontos


    from iG Economia

    Por Aluísio Alves SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O avanço dos preços de commodities metálicas alçou a Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo para a segunda sessão seguida de forte alta, na contramão dos mercados de Wall Street. Mesmo perdendo fôlego no final do dia, o Ibovespa fechou com valorização de 3,17 por cento, atingindo 41.518 pontos, o maior nível desde 14 de outubro.

    Nas duas primeiras sessões de 2009, o indicador acumula ganho de 10,6 por cento.

    Diferentemente do primeiro pregão do ano, quando o índice disparou 7,17 por cento num dia de poucos negócios, nesta segunda-feira o volume financeiro foi de 4,25 bilhões de reais --acima da média diária dos últimos dois meses.

    De acordo com profissionais do mercado, o mote principal para a alta foi o anúncio de que o governo chinês vai eliminar taxas de importação sobre algumas commodities metálicas, como cobre, níquel e alumínio, a partir de 1o de fevereiro, para estimular a re-exportação.

    "A notícia impactou as ações de empresas do setor", disse Newton Rosa, economista-chefe da SulAmerica Investimentos.

    Entre as que refletiram a notícia mais intensamente, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional disparou 8,9 por cento, para 34,55 reais. Pouco atrás, Usiminas ganhou 6,6 por cento, negociada a 30,60 reais, seguida por Vale, com um salto de 6,9 por cento, a 28 reais.

    Em outra frente, Petrobras reagiu à forte alta dos preços do petróleo com elevação de 2,3 por cento, a 25,10 reais. O papel chegou a subir mais, mas perdeu força após a notícia de que um acidente interrompeu a produção de uma plataforma recém-inaugurada da companhia no Rio de Janeiro. Uma pessoa morreu.

    Com a força das ações ligadas a matérias-primas, o setor mais importante do Ibovespa, a influência negativa de Wall Street, num dia em que grandes montadoras de veículos anunciaram queda ao redor de 30 por cento nas vendas de dezembro, ficou em segundo plano.

    A nota negativa do dia foi Pão de Açúcar, que divulgou um crescimento de 9,3 por cento das vendas brutas de dezembro em relação ao mesmo mês de 2007. O resultado agradou analistas, mas não o mercado.

    Enxergando a estratégia agressiva de promoções como sinal de queda nas margens de lucro, os investidores venderam as ações da empresa, que caíram 4,1 por cento, a 31,37 reais.


    Para o Merrill Lynch, a recente disparada do mercado de ações pode ter duas explicações.

    A primeira é que tudo o que de pior pode acontecer em função da crise já está nos preços das ações.

    A outra é que, à medida que os dados vão mostrando um cenário cada vez mais aterrador dos estragos da crise, o investidor avalia que o governo do presidente-eleito dos EUA, Barack Obama, terá que tomar medidas fiscais ainda mais profundas para tentar reanimar a economia.

    "Ficamos imaginando qual será a reação do mercado quando descobrir que a recuperação vai tomar bastante tempo", considerou o Merrill Lynch em relatório.

    Market Outlook - 05/01/2009

    Market Outlook

    domingo, 4 de janeiro de 2009

    Agenda doméstica tem IPCA e produção industrial


    from iG Economia

    As divulgações do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPC) de dezembro bem como da inflação fechada de 2008 e a produção industrial de novembro devem ser os principais destaques da agenda de indicadores econômicos domésticos na primeira semana completa de 2009. Os números sobre a inflação do mês passado e o acumulado no ano serão divulgados sexta-feira pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).Segundo a mediana das expectativas dos analistas do mercado na Pesquisa Focus, espera-se que o IPCA de dezembro feche mostrando uma inflação de 0,40%. Esta taxa, se for confirmada, ficará praticamente igual à variação determinada pelo reajuste médio de 0,36% dos preços em novembro. Para o fechamento do ano, a pesquisa aponta para uma inflação de 6,03%. Até novembro, o IPCA acumulava no ano uma inflação de 5,61% e em 12 meses, alta de 6,39%.

    A produção industrial, por sua vez, será anunciada pelo IBGE na terça-feira. Trata-se de um indicador até certo ponto defasado por apresentar o resultado da indústria no mês de novembro, mas que dará a dimensão em relação aos efeitos da crise econômica e financeira internacional sobre a atividade fabril naquele mês. Em outubro, primeiro mês em que os impactos da crise estiveram presentes do começo ao fim do período, a produção industrial sofreu uma queda de 1,70% na margem e um pequeno crescimento, de 0,80%, na comparação de outubro com o mesmo mês de 2007.

    Ainda na terça-feira, será divulgado o IPC-Fipe de dezembro, que mede a taxa de inflação na capital paulista. Em novembro o indicador registrou uma alta média de 0,39% nos preços de bens e serviços na cidade de São Paulo. No ano, até aquele mês, o IPC-Fipe acumulava alta de 5,99%. Na Focus, a mediana aponta para uma inflação de 6,43% no encerramento de 2008. Na sexta-feira, a Fipe comunica a variação do IPC na primeira quadrissemana do ano.


    O calendário de divulgações se inicia já amanhã, quando serão conhecidos o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Semanal (IPC-S) referente a dezembro e o Relatório de Mercado, mais conhecido como Pesquisa Focus. O IPC-S fechou em novembro com uma alta de 0,56%, taxa que já foi maior que a de 0,47% em outubro. Entre outras coisas, o que mais pressionou a inflação apurada pelo IPC-S foram os alimentos in natura, que exercem grande peso sobre o indicador e que no final do ano, por pressões sazonais, acabam tendo seus preços fortemente elevados.

    Para a quarta-feira, a agenda de indicadores domésticos reserva espaço apenas para o Índice Geral de Preços - Disponibilidade Interna (IGP-DI) de dezembro, da Fundação Getúlio Vargas. Em novembro, esse indicador fechou com uma ligeira alta de 0,07%, refletindo a queda de 0,64% dos preços no atacado agrícola e a estabilidade dos preços industriais. Para o mês passado, se for seguido o que mostrou o IGP-M (-0,13%), o IGP-DI já poderá vir com uma variação negativa dos preços. Neste caso, os agrícolas continuariam negativos e os industriais viriam para o mesmo lado.

    Na quinta-feira, a FGV volta anuncia a primeira quadrissemana do IPC-S de janeiro de 2009 e o Departamento Intersindical de Estatísticas e Estudos Socioeconômicos (Dieese) informa em quanto fechou a inflação na capital paulista no âmbito do Índice do Custo de Vida (ICV-Dieese). Em novembro o ICV fechou em alta de 0,53%.

    Market Outlook - 04/01/2009

    Market Outlook

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