domingo, 30 de novembro de 2008

How to Succeed in a Bear Market

How to Succeed in a Bear Market

Glen Bradford submits:

Wall Street is known for taking the brightest of minds and curb stomping their faces on the patio out back. In the past 3 months I've learned a lot about the dynamics of the stock market amidst one of the largest crashes we've ever seen. Especially, how accelerations in price evaluations can be expected in certain classes of stock (value vs. growth, small vs. mid. vs. large cap, dividend vs. non-dividend, developed vs. emerging, active vs. passive, credit vs. equity, time-based vs. time unlimited, high volume vs. low volume). I use comparative analytics and Monte Carlo simulation to determine the stocks I hold in my portfolio and the portfolios of my investors.

We've been in a bear market for a year now. I've been selectively bullish since Dow 11,000 --- and that turned to market bullish at Dow 8,000. That said, it could still go lower. I'm out there buying the falling knives and getting slaughtered doing it. What I didn't take into account was that when the entire market falls, it takes great companies with it. And, it takes those great companies to price levels that offer huge rewards for those patient enough to buy in at the right time.

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